KALONZO MUSYOKA: THE DARK HORSE OF THE 2027 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
By Adda Achieng
On October 22, 2022, as Kanyada and Homa Bay County gathered to mourn Mzee Stanley Aluma Amolo, a revered patriarch from Homa Bay Town's largest clan, the atmosphere was charged with palpable tension. The funeral service, held at Ndiru Primary School, drew leaders not just to pay respects to the Alumas but also to voice their grievances against President William Ruto, whom they accused of having manipulated his way into the presidency. Kenya had just emerged from one of its most fiercely contested presidential elections in recent history. While former Prime Minister Raila Odinga was notably absent, a significant figure from Odinga's circle was seated, one whose presence was as huge as Raila's and who, indeed ultimately delivered the condolence message of the late prime minister.
This event marked an unspoken endorsement for former Vice President and Wiper Democratic Front leader, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, from the leaders of Nyanza, and there is no denying that Kalonzo Musyoka would go head-to-head with President William Ruto for the Nyanza votes. Historically, since 2013, Musyoka has served as the Luo community's fallback candidate if Raila Odinga ever chose to step back from the political arena.
As Azimio La Umoja coalition drifted apart, the ODM Party has always been kinder to and a parliamentary ally to Kalonzo's Wiper. That much cannot be said of Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee nor Gideon Moi's Kanu. Within the amorphous United Opposition coalition that includes Musyoka, Rigathi Gachagua, Eugine Wamalwa, Justin Muturi, Martha Karua, and Dr Fred Matiangi, there is a burgeoning consensus that Kalonzo is the most formidable candidate to challenge President Ruto. This sentiment is so strong that Ruto, in a fit of frustration, publicly belittled Musyoka’s 40+ years of public service, claiming he cannot be trusted to lead Kenya, for trivially, he, Kalonzo, did not tarmac the road leading to his Tseikuru ranch. Inadvertently, the president underscored the threat Kalonzo poses to his hold on power.
Moreover, the GEMA ethnic conglomeration has consistently marginalised the Akamba community in political affairs, but the time is now ripe for them to right the wrongs. The Mt. Kenya region, it appears, would rather turn its gaze towards their eastern and southern neighbours than consider supporting a candidate from within the United Opposition, particularly Dr Matiangi. And with the growing unease among Kenyans regarding the prospect of a Ruto successor emerging from Mt. Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka may just hit the jackpot.
Feeling cornered, President Ruto acknowledges the precariousness of his position. Despite his deputy, Prof. Kithure Kindiki, successfully navigating the Mbeere North by-election, whispers suggest that state machinery was heavily employed to secure a narrow victory margin of merely 500 votes; thus, the victory was not about Ruto's popularity in Mt. Kenya East.
Additionally, the political landscape has shifted dramatically since Raila Odinga's passing, positioning all the political players, Kalonzo, to contest the late premier's national constituency, something President Ruto had banked on Raila delivering on a platter. Consequently, Odinga's support bases are now potentially swaying towards emerging swing regions. Under Dr Oburu Oginga, ODM has indicated a willingness to collaborate with Ruto; however, it remains uncertain how much electoral weight they can contribute outside Nyanza. Meanwhile, the unity of Western Kenya has splintered, largely due to the rise of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembea and Eugene Wamalwa, who have effectively diminished the influence of Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetangula. Wetangula struggled to have his own party candidate win his ward's by-election before eventually losing to an independent candidate. That the Natembea-Wamalwa axis also gave Ruto and his UDA a run for their money in Malava further confirms that the president would stutter to marshal any substantial votes from Western.
The political discord on display during the burial of former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo revealed deep-seated fractures in the pursuit of unity among the Luyha community, much more to the chagrin of the president, who cut his New Year's holiday to grace a tournament in Kakamega to try to appease the fallout.
As President Ruto inches closer to a second term, Kalonzo Musyoka emerges as a dark horse with the potential to disrupt the entrenched ethnic duopoly that has characterised the Kenyan presidency since independence. And as the next election approaches, the possibility of a new political paradigm in Kenya is not just a dream, it may very well be on the horizon